Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai party achieved an unexpected election win yesterday, with an increase of more than 100 seats since the last vote in 2023. More predictably, Pheu Thai suffered a significant decline, losing almost half of their seats. The People’s Party, which won the last election, lost almost a quarter of their seats, finishing in second place.
At a press conference last night, Anutin said (in English): “Nationalism is in the heart of everybody in Bhumjaithai party.” This goes a long way to explain his election victory, as the defence of the country — following last year’s border war with Cambodia — was central to his campaign. This was in stark contrast to Pheu Thai, whose former leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra was dismissed as prime minister following her obsequious phone call with former Cambodian PM Hun Sen.
Since he became PM last September, following Paetongtarn’s dismissal, Anutin has increased his power base, with dozens of MPs (including fifty from United Thai Nation) defecting from other parties to join Bhumjaithai. The People’s Party must now be bitterly regretting their confidence-and-supply agreement with Anutin, which — from their perspective — has backfired spectacularly. Their only consolation is that they achieved a clean sweep in Bangkok, winning all thirty-three constituencies in the capital.
There are numerous reasons for Pheu Thai’s losses. They ran a campaign that was even more blatantly populist than usual, promising to hold daily lotteries with ฿1 million prizes. Their de facto leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, is in jail, yet the party is still reliant on Thaksin family members — this time, his nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat — for its prime-ministerial candidates. And Pheu Thai have surely lost considerable support since 2023, after breaking their pledge not to form a coalition with pro-military parties.
Bhumjaithai will need a coalition to form a government, and their most likely coalition partner — and therefore kingmaker — is Thamanat Prompow’s medium-sized Klatham party, whose fifty-seven seats would put Bhumjaithai over the 250-seat threshold for a parliamentary majority. (Anutin pulled out of the Pheu Thai coalition last year, and Bhumjaithai and the progressive People’s Party are ideological opposites.)
Yesterday’s votes also included a preliminary referendum asking whether the constitution should be rewritten. There was a majority in favour of a new constitution, with a striking north/south divide: almost all constituencies in northern and central Thailand voted in favour, while almost all constituencies in the south voted against. With the conservative Bhumjaithai in power, any changes to the constitution are likely to be limited.
At a press conference last night, Anutin said (in English): “Nationalism is in the heart of everybody in Bhumjaithai party.” This goes a long way to explain his election victory, as the defence of the country — following last year’s border war with Cambodia — was central to his campaign. This was in stark contrast to Pheu Thai, whose former leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra was dismissed as prime minister following her obsequious phone call with former Cambodian PM Hun Sen.
Since he became PM last September, following Paetongtarn’s dismissal, Anutin has increased his power base, with dozens of MPs (including fifty from United Thai Nation) defecting from other parties to join Bhumjaithai. The People’s Party must now be bitterly regretting their confidence-and-supply agreement with Anutin, which — from their perspective — has backfired spectacularly. Their only consolation is that they achieved a clean sweep in Bangkok, winning all thirty-three constituencies in the capital.
There are numerous reasons for Pheu Thai’s losses. They ran a campaign that was even more blatantly populist than usual, promising to hold daily lotteries with ฿1 million prizes. Their de facto leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, is in jail, yet the party is still reliant on Thaksin family members — this time, his nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat — for its prime-ministerial candidates. And Pheu Thai have surely lost considerable support since 2023, after breaking their pledge not to form a coalition with pro-military parties.
Bhumjaithai will need a coalition to form a government, and their most likely coalition partner — and therefore kingmaker — is Thamanat Prompow’s medium-sized Klatham party, whose fifty-seven seats would put Bhumjaithai over the 250-seat threshold for a parliamentary majority. (Anutin pulled out of the Pheu Thai coalition last year, and Bhumjaithai and the progressive People’s Party are ideological opposites.)
Yesterday’s votes also included a preliminary referendum asking whether the constitution should be rewritten. There was a majority in favour of a new constitution, with a striking north/south divide: almost all constituencies in northern and central Thailand voted in favour, while almost all constituencies in the south voted against. With the conservative Bhumjaithai in power, any changes to the constitution are likely to be limited.