Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai, became Thai Prime Minister today, though his term in office may be short-lived. After the Constitutional Court dismissed Paetongtarn Shinawatra last week, Anutin was the clear front-runner to succeed her, and he has now been elected by a majority of MPs, though he will lead a minority caretaker government.
Bhumjaithai was the first party to join Pheu Thai’s coalition in 2023, after Pheu Thai abandoned the election winners, Move Forward. He became interior minister in the coalition government, though earlier this year there were rumours that he would lose that powerful position in a cabinet reshuffle. When Paetongtarn’s obsequious phone call with former Cambodian PM Hun Sen was leaked, Anutin used the scandal as a pretext to withdraw Bhumjaithai from the coalition.
To win today’s parliamentary vote, Anutin relied on the support of the opposition People’s Party, which was founded after Move Forward was dissolved by the Constitutional Court. The People’s Party and Bhumjaithai signed a joint agreement on 3rd September, with the People’s Party endorsing Anutin as PM (though not joining a Bhumjaithai coalition) on the condition that he pledged to call an election within four months.
This confidence-and-supply arrangement is extremely unconventional, as the progressive People’s Party and the conservative Bhumjaithai are ideological opposites. But it’s in the People’s Party’s interests to hold an election as soon as possible, as Pheu Thai, their main rival, have lost public confidence. Perhaps, as the proverb says, my enemy’s enemy is my friend — the People’s Party and Bhumjaithai are united only in their mutual distrust of Pheu Thai — though the deal with Anutin could also cost the People’s Party some support at the next election.
In a last-minute and rather desperate overture yesterday, Pheu Thai offered to dissolve parliament immediately — not within the four months agreed by Anutin — provided that the People’s Party endorsed Pheu Thai’s candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri as PM. The People’s Party rejected this proposal and instead voted for Anutin, but only after an intense internal debate.
With only two nominated candidates, Anutin and Chaikasem, the People’s Party were caught between a rock and a hard place: vote for the party that scuppered their chances of forming a government in 2023 (Pheu Thai), or a party that opposes their entire manifesto (Bhumjaithai). In the end, given the betrayal that took place after the last election, it seems that the People’s Party leadership couldn’t bring themselves to endorse a Pheu Thai candidate. (If they had abstained, and neither candidate had gained a majority, this would have led to a second round of voting, with different candidates, potentially including Prayut Chan-o-cha.)
Will Anutin stick to the terms of his agreement with the People’s Party and call an early election? He has harboured prime ministerial ambitions for many years, and now that he has finally achieved them, he is unlikely to do anything to jeopardise his position. As a medium-sized party, Bhumjaithai has little hope of winning the next election, and another coalition with Pheu Thai is surely out of the question (even taking into account the transactional nature of Thai politics), giving Anutin an incentive to delay the election for as long as possible.
Phumtham Wechayachai, who had served as acting prime minister since Paetongtarn’s suspension in July, submitted a draft royal decree seeking the dissolution of parliament on 2nd September, to be signed by the King. But the submission was swiftly rejected by the Privy Council, citing legal advice that an acting PM is not authorised to dissolve parliament.
Bhumjaithai was the first party to join Pheu Thai’s coalition in 2023, after Pheu Thai abandoned the election winners, Move Forward. He became interior minister in the coalition government, though earlier this year there were rumours that he would lose that powerful position in a cabinet reshuffle. When Paetongtarn’s obsequious phone call with former Cambodian PM Hun Sen was leaked, Anutin used the scandal as a pretext to withdraw Bhumjaithai from the coalition.
To win today’s parliamentary vote, Anutin relied on the support of the opposition People’s Party, which was founded after Move Forward was dissolved by the Constitutional Court. The People’s Party and Bhumjaithai signed a joint agreement on 3rd September, with the People’s Party endorsing Anutin as PM (though not joining a Bhumjaithai coalition) on the condition that he pledged to call an election within four months.
This confidence-and-supply arrangement is extremely unconventional, as the progressive People’s Party and the conservative Bhumjaithai are ideological opposites. But it’s in the People’s Party’s interests to hold an election as soon as possible, as Pheu Thai, their main rival, have lost public confidence. Perhaps, as the proverb says, my enemy’s enemy is my friend — the People’s Party and Bhumjaithai are united only in their mutual distrust of Pheu Thai — though the deal with Anutin could also cost the People’s Party some support at the next election.
In a last-minute and rather desperate overture yesterday, Pheu Thai offered to dissolve parliament immediately — not within the four months agreed by Anutin — provided that the People’s Party endorsed Pheu Thai’s candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri as PM. The People’s Party rejected this proposal and instead voted for Anutin, but only after an intense internal debate.
With only two nominated candidates, Anutin and Chaikasem, the People’s Party were caught between a rock and a hard place: vote for the party that scuppered their chances of forming a government in 2023 (Pheu Thai), or a party that opposes their entire manifesto (Bhumjaithai). In the end, given the betrayal that took place after the last election, it seems that the People’s Party leadership couldn’t bring themselves to endorse a Pheu Thai candidate. (If they had abstained, and neither candidate had gained a majority, this would have led to a second round of voting, with different candidates, potentially including Prayut Chan-o-cha.)
Will Anutin stick to the terms of his agreement with the People’s Party and call an early election? He has harboured prime ministerial ambitions for many years, and now that he has finally achieved them, he is unlikely to do anything to jeopardise his position. As a medium-sized party, Bhumjaithai has little hope of winning the next election, and another coalition with Pheu Thai is surely out of the question (even taking into account the transactional nature of Thai politics), giving Anutin an incentive to delay the election for as long as possible.
Phumtham Wechayachai, who had served as acting prime minister since Paetongtarn’s suspension in July, submitted a draft royal decree seeking the dissolution of parliament on 2nd September, to be signed by the King. But the submission was swiftly rejected by the Privy Council, citing legal advice that an acting PM is not authorised to dissolve parliament.
0 comment(s):
Post a Comment